Modelling

Predicting the impacts of drought:

Hydrological models

The project is using two hydrological models to produce different ‘what if?’ scenarios (using data from baseline and historical drought events) for climate change, such as hypothetical drought events and options for adapting to, and mitigation of, drought in the UK. We will also include a ‘do nothing’ option.

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‘Mesocosm’ models

The project uses data collected by our volunteer citizen scientists involved with small-scale experiments which control environmental conditions called ‘mesocosms’. This data will be scaled-up to generate catchment-level information for predicting drought risks in the UK.

This includes:

  • Plant experiments which manipulate rainfall levels to assess changes in plant growth and species diversity.
  • Agriculture experiments in polytunnels which control the amount and quality of water supplied to different crop species to measure the impacts on crop production.

Results from our questionnaire about water use in domestic homes and gardens will be used to estimate current water use and demand at catchment scale.

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